If you look at gold over the past few weeks, the picture can be misleading.
And the mainstream press is all over it – forever uncontent without a pat explanation that aligns with price action.
It’s an impossible task. The market for any global asset is so massive, and underpinned by literal hundreds of millions or billions of individual actors that truly understanding the motivations and causes for daily/weekly price movements with PERFECT information would be impossible for the most powerful supercomputers.
But we don’t have perfectly granular information. We have broad strokes. We have light dimly illuminating the cave walls.
That does not stop the corporate press from making declarative statements in an effort to project the myth of surety.
For instance, last week CNBC posted a headline reading:
“Gold hits three-week low amid US-China trade progress.”
Oh it was the unwinding of US-China trade uncertainty that pushed gold lower after hitting all time highs? If “knowing” this kind of fact helps you sleep at night, there’s no harm in it, but I think it’s not a very useful endeavor for your long term gold holdings.
On the other hand, the headlines a month ago were all about gold being a safe haven and a bet on a Fed rate cut and the US government shut down.
As I’ve said before, we didn’t get to $4,300 gold because of news cycle headlines about tariffs or uncertainty.
We got there through DECADES of monetary policy undermining the dollar with constant devaluation.
If you were making short term bets about where gold might go in the next week, maybe you care about having an illusory grasp of knowing what might happen with China trade woes or interest rate policy or the US government shut down… but you’ll drive yourself crazy trying to sort through all of the tea leaves. There are too many. They can and do blow in many directions without warning.
The long arc is clearly moving in the same direction. The broad strokes on the cave wall aren’t changing.
And the underlying story for gold stocks is as strong as ever. Gold appears to be holding steady at the $4k level. Who knows if it will dip further – but every single gold stock I’m looking at is cautiously basing their business plans on $3,000 gold – or sometimes even lower.
I sent a news alert to members of my GP10X service yesterday about a company I cover, and how it projects future revenues based on $2,800 gold and $30 silver.
That’s the headspace the gold miners are in right now. They all have long memories, and many of them are still recovering mentally from the end of the bull market in 2011-2012.
I get the sense that many gold investors are in a similar headspace. They’re cautiously optimistic about the gold bull. But this “eerie calm” is what typically happens after a big run-up in the middle of a bull surge.
My point: you can’t predict short term price action. All you can do is analyze and re-analyze your thesis – and check the valuations on the stocks you own or want to own.
That’s all I do, all day. I’m checking and re-checking my valuations. I’m still coming to the same conclusion about my favorite gold positions that I was 6 months or 12 months or 18 months ago.
And when you check and re-check, and dig through the observable, concrete information we have available, I think you will come to the same conclusion I have:
We’re just getting started.
I’m still super excited about my favorite gold miner in my GPIV service.
I’ve put together a brief write-up about this company, and why I believe it’s due for a massive revaluation upwards starting in January 2026.
You don’t have to guess: read my full write-up here, for free.
We have an opportunity to buy gold stocks at prices better than we did a month ago – and that doesn’t happen very often during a bull run. Don’t let this chance pass you by.
Best,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT
Lead Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio